[Senior engineer obs火數ervation] Four probl中女ems need to be solved for the i他北ntroduction of 21700 domes吧土tic applications
With the Lishen 21700 battery l拿懂isted in the 29做飛9th batch catalog of the Min現畫istry of Industry 門商and Information Technology, eq又錢uipped with 2 new energy special model老體s, the domestic 21700她自 battery officially ushered in 內雜the prelude to practical appli討習cation.
Gaogong Lithium Battery 厭書learned that the 21700 熱資battery shortlisted in the catalog 少作has a capacity of 4.0Ah, a電國dopts the NCM system, and the spe國多cific energy of the monomer reach林算es 210wh/kg, mainly aimed工跳 at the electric l校紙ogistics vehicle and passenger car mark歌作ets.
With the application of 2話樂1700 in China, the 離是remarks about &新長quot;local battery c在老ompanies will set off a 2170冷讀0 boom, and domestic 2170媽文0 is about to replace 18650" beg靜水an to appear.
However, the analysis of the Advan快是ced Industry Researc廠討h Institute (GGII) beli開子eves that in order to make breakthr空快oughs in the domestic application土藍 of the 21700 batte熱兒ry, there are at least 4 obst南遠acles that need to be s些和olved:
First, the corresponding techno票慢logy and industri身朋al supporting capacity 花高are insufficient; Second, ba物音ttery companies 的紅are on the sidelines; Third, 這工square and soft pack power batteries a報雨re also actively s唱在eizing the market; Fourth, 費海the 21700 battery has not yet刀票 been recognized by domes快件tic new energy vehicle compani街但es.
3 advantages to attract attention
Before analyzing the prob訊微lem, there is a呢志 question that must be clear, why does鐵個 21700 attract the attention of 光男domestic battery compa日服nies?
First, Tesla endorses秒拿 it. In 2016, Tesla announ劇麗ced that the 21700 battery it jo關放intly developed with Pa一開nasonic would be commercia票習lized on the Model 3, and not long 明厭ago, Model 3 was confir工化med to begin del金大ivery.
Secondly, the perfo鐘這rmance is superior. Tesla's 217日也00 performance 分雜data shows that its sin也如gle cell capacity is about 4.8土電Ah, and the energy density拿線 after group is in但水creased by about 20% compared with 書能18650, which can effectively reduce th白業e number of batt子電eries installed in 店老the vehicle, thereby si器嗎mplifying the battery manageme廠人nt system BMS, therm音飛al management components員在, packaging materials, an電的d effectively reducing the 司現components and weight of the battery美做 pack by about 10%.
In addition, the cost is計了 superior. In terms of the cost that請坐 the entire lithium battery industry c哥現hain is more conce聽費rned about this year, 讀水the cost of Tesla's 21700 batte媽服ry system can reach $155 / Wh, a redu公民ction of 9%.
4 major obstacles to 商門delaying promotio微冷n
It is difficult for "high-書樹quality and cheap" new p妹照roducts not to make domestic power b著雜attery companies excited, but it also l相信eads to the fir雪車st problem that hinders the breakt快輛hrough of 21700厭男 battery localization - insuffi知科cient technology and跳窗 industrial supporting ca笑視pabilities.
From the available data, the key 生遠to the superior performance o分場f Tesla 21700 batter歌工y lies in material improve公年ment. Including the use of NCA+ sil畫藍icon-carbon system, so that土她 the specific energy of the b村輛attery is as high as請線 300wh/kg; The use of pre-nickel-plated體湖 steel shell material t務醫o ensure enhanced cell co東黑nsistency and safety; In additi年風on, Tesla designed a new battery pack 來醫module, pack architecture and chassi身購s structure on the Mo技花del 3.
However, the 21700 b大劇attery that has been mass-produced 姐醫in China mainly adopts the NC錢還M system, with a specific e唱的nergy of 210-215wh/kg, and it秒物 is the mainstream practice to rely 林近on volume expans錯黑ion to seek energy我高 density improvement. Since 間行the core material technology has 嗎個not yet broken through, the future upgr好拿ade of domestic batteries is also 照費tentatively set for NCM811 and NC器腦A systems; At the sam為討e time, because the core technology of唱東 pre-nickel-plat自科ed steel shell materials is co秒下ntrolled by Japanese companies科服, most domestic companies 雨街can only choose post-nickel-plated 我報shell materials on the battery core she都道ll.
Mention here can not help bu小身t remind people of 18650, also init女去iated by Tesla, ca影雪using domestic battery companies t姐錢o follow suit, but n她吃ow how big is the gap betwe街林en domestic 18650 資麗battery performance and 議黃Tesla's products? 不煙I believe that every battery company 笑明has a scale in its hea熱人rt.
In addition to the limite匠家d supply capacity o雪校f upstream high-quality 又票materials, domestic equipment compa也知nies failed to synchronize product u事刀pdates with battery companies, wh說人ich also delayed the localizatio店如n of 21700.
According to pub技慢lic information, only one d為舞omestic equipment company, Pioneer Int街你elligence, has equip子微ment products that match the performa土多nce of the 21700 battery p商城roduction line. Even if the new你從 100,000-square-meter 林務production base o風暗f Pioneer Intelligent is a謝大bout to be put into use, it is d綠路ifficult to supply m老暗any domestic battery companies 間吃that want to get i行個nvolved in 21700 on thei大鐘r own.
At this stage, the attitud開大e of battery companies to 21700 is t子公he second important 吃我reason.
For the domestic p體日ower battery industry at t我內he watershed, battery comp輛嗎anies are expected to redu花匠ce market risks as much as possi對高ble, and there are many battery 做秒companies that wait fo一從r 21700 technology to mature be鄉能fore directly introduci生綠ng new products.
Previously, it was rumored in the ind窗數ustry that many companies were吧放 stepping up the layout of the 21700生玩 production line, but as f道會ar as the actual situa飛師tion is concerned, only EVE 刀服Lithium Energy and Tianjin Lishen 2 co站照mpanies publicly annou購黃nced that they have built a new友動 21700 product production l月吃ine and put it in低船to production.
As for why there was no rush to可也 production, a se間店nior executive of a battery company who請拍 did not want to be named sa開藍id: "In fact, before 21700, th友土ere were cylindrical batteries 裡路that were said to have be能玩tter relative performance, su厭劇ch as 26650, 32113, etc., but in the en低兵d they failed to harvest聽數 the Chinese market. ”
The strong comp關學etition in the mar還人ket for other types of power batte音在ries is the third就懂 important factor.
As a new product紙聽 of the cylindrical series, the 2相器1700 battery has been gr亮拍eatly improved in performa低遠nce and the technical requ秒議irements are more stringent. But a刀冷t the same time, s影煙quare and pouch batteries, whi多街ch also occupy a place in the power bat們我tery market, are also actively enh區是ancing market competitiv舊很eness.
At present, CATL focuses on 窗老prismatic batteries;新動 Watma, Lishen and other main cylinders風麗; AVIC Lithium, Wanxia體著ng, Funeng and other m到見ain pouch batteries. Th新門e backers behind the three 河遠types of batteries are str線劇ong, and the fierce competition be計些tween the various types of ba業又tteries can be se務市en.
From the actual data, in 2016, the dom相相estic cylindrical, soft pack, s如跳quare lithium batt事知ery production was 13.92GWh,市答 22.99GWH, 26.64GWh,視有 accounting for 2學讀1.9%, 36.2%, 41.9%暗放, respectively, p化不ouch battery market propor那件tion has exceeded cylind件年rical, followed by s照會quare. In the case that prismatic城你 batteries continu民銀e to occupy the lar樂黑gest share of the domesti機外c lithium battery market, pouch batt你短eries have accounted for t志吃he first growth rate 月師of the market for two consecutive店男 years.
Of course, the most 答劇critical obstacle stems from the e火了nd of the industrial c討線hain - the 21700 battery h人靜as not yet been recognized by new energ街紅y vehicle companies.
Can be installed on the c月技ar is the produ火樂ction power of 房大every battery company, the dev美兵elopment of 21700 battery only by batte數子ry companies &qu北的ot;shaving the head an線麗d picking a hot head" is diffi志兒cult to achieve, the rea筆金l money to buy the battery has the righ請對t to speak. Howe通妹ver, as far as the草靜 information previo你路usly learned in the industry, 地分car companies believe that the large章這-scale use of 21700 bat睡地teries remains to be seen.術件
Gaogong Lithium P時秒ower Grid has also previ離紙ously learned about the situation fr近湖om a number of vehicle company executi鐘森ves, and the fee輛我dback obtained is: Tesla 讀生Model 3 uses 21700 batte道民ries and many domestic 匠水battery companies layout 21700 ba北北tteries, which has no impact on do中金mestic vehicle companies, and car 綠遠companies do not pa筆錯y much attentio和少n to 21700 batteries.
In the 299th batch of a放多nnouncements, the reason why Nan動日jing Golden Dragon pure electric t秒分ransport vehicle uses 21700 batteries呢秒 is also mainly 朋厭due to customer designation.
The main reason for the indiffer謝就ence of car companies is that 站雜with the changes in domestic a站行nd foreign policies and mar算刀kets, domestic vehicle compan樹請ies are more caut爸個ious in introducing new type火拿s of batteries, and car companies will 呢視not rashly adopt ne農不w batteries before學問 they are fully verified.
At the same time, changing the 子小battery model means 兒有that the battery module, PACK, box妹問 and vehicle chassis國門 need to be changed acco雨得rdingly in terms of structural design,內呢 which will invisibly in妹鐵crease the burden on vehicle enterpri年外ses.
In the absence of scale effect a聽熱nd material system differences影南, the cost advantage of the domestic 村坐21700 battery itself has not be地少en reflected, cou藍做pled with the policy文他 trend of subsidy decline, 和朋car companies are問她 not willing to pay more, th男金en who will pay for the extra cost很些 will be a question worth ponderi林船ng.
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